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Integration of Traffic and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Evacuation Plans due to Flood Hazards

The aim of the joint research project is to combine the simulation of high water and / or wave propagation with the simulation and optimisation of traffic patterns. This will contribute to improved crisis management during extreme events while taking disaster sociology into account. Upon completion of the project, the researchers will present a simulation system for the optimisation of crisis communication that takes social dynamics into consideration. The Department of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management is the lead partner in the joint research project EvaSim.

Social Sciences are involved in the project to generate knowledge about the behavior and needs of populations during an evacuation situation:
  • How fast does the population evacuate?
  • Which means of transport is chosen for evacuation?
  • Which percentage does not evacuate and therefore requires assistance through the civil protection authorities?
  • How do officials have to communicate to the population to trigger the intended behaviour?
The behaviour of the population during an evacuation depends on several variables, which can be divided into three groups:
  1. Perception of a warning
  2. Response to the alert
  3. Behavior during the evacuation
To answer these questions the social science work package uses a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods including focus groups, a quantitative survey and an agent based simulation.

Project duration: June 2009 – October 2012
Project staff: Kuhn, Rainer, M.A.
Sellke, Piet, M.A.
Alcántara, Sophia, M.A.
Contact: Rainer Kuhn

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